![]() The move from dissuasive threats to the reality of a nuclear attack goes against logic that, beyond wreaking a humanitarian disaster, makes such a scenario unlikely. And Russia has responded with tougher threats. In terms of aid, Ukraine has gained ground as its allies have stepped up their deliveries, for example with medium-range missiles. In the first instance Putin has achieved notable results, with Kyiv’s allies reluctant to hand over fighter jets, tanks and heavy weaponry for fear of provoking an escalation. Putin’s nuclear threats contain an eminently dissuasive logic: they are designed to cause inhibition in the West in terms of aid to Ukraine and in Kyiv, with regard to how far it is willing to push its counter-offensive against Russian troops on the ground. These points of view represent the majority opinion among experts in the field. Quite low, in fact”, agrees Luis Simón, director of the Elcano Royal Institute for International and Strategic Studies in Brussels and senior analyst specializing in international relations and security issues. “The probability of a nuclear attack remains low. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists and a leading expert in the study of the arsenals of the atomic powers. “This is the most serious nuclear threat since the end of the Cold War. As a guide, below are simulations of attacks on cities such as Barcelona, Kyiv and Mexico City, carried out with warheads similar to the one dropped on Hiroshima and also the most powerful bombs Russia has in its nuclear arsenal, according to the best available analyses. The fundamental starting point of any analysis is the destructive capacity of these weapons, which vary in scale depending on the type of bomb deployed. As such, it is increasingly important to understand the nuclear framework in which Russia is operating. ![]() A majority of experts agree that the possibility remains remote, but they also concur with Biden’s assessment that the world is in its most delicate state in decades with unknown quantities clouding the horizon and raising the risk of an uncontrolled escalation. ![]() This does not imply, however, that a Russian nuclear attack is likely. Russian setbacks on the battlefield and the weakening of Putin’s position as a result have led to heightened concern that Moscow could fall back on the nuclear option, to the extent that US President Joe Biden has described the situation as the most dangerous moment since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 and to evoke the specter of a nuclear apocalypse. Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened to resort to nuclear weapons since the Kremlin launched its invasion of Ukraine last February. ![]()
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